Shrewsbury
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86
Cheltenham
21%
Fair odds 4.66
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shrewsbury | Draw | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cheltenham
Cheltenham are rated 13 points above Shrewsbury (1171 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Shrewsbury
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Shrewsbury's chance of winning and takes the same from Cheltenham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shrewsbury
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Shrewsbury score 0.6 a match against an average side (18th in League Two); Cheltenham concede 2.6 (23rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury LDWWL, barely moved; Cheltenham LWWLL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Cheltenham
Shrewsbury won 2, drew 0 and lost 6 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ShrewsburyCheltenhamShrewsbury
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Cheltenham
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shrewsbury | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 31%3.18 | 4%23.58 | 1%77.52 |
| Level | 20%5.05 | 15%6.89 | 9%11.70 |
| Cheltenham | 3%31.35 | 5%20.41 | 12%8.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Shrewsbury wins6Cheltenham wins- L Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham 0-2
- L Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury 3-1
- L Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury 2-0
- W Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham 1-0
- L Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham 0-1
- L Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury 2-0
- W Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham 3-1
- L Cheltenham vs Shrewsbury 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Shrewsbury's side.