Silkeborg
27%
Fair odds 3.72
Aarhus
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.07
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–210%
- 0–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Silkeborg | Draw | Aarhus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aarhus
Aarhus are rated 88 points above Silkeborg (1402 to 1314), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Silkeborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Silkeborg's chance of winning and takes the same from Aarhus's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aarhus
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.7. Silkeborg score 0.8 a match against an average side (10th in Danish Superliga); Aarhus concede 1.6 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Silkeborg LDLDW, lost 9 rating points; Aarhus DLWDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Aarhus
Silkeborg won 2, drew 7 and lost 4 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SilkeborgAarhusSilkeborg
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Aarhus
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Silkeborg | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silkeborg | 21%4.79 | 9%11.71 | 6%16.39 |
| Level | 6%16.98 | 13%7.82 | 20%4.89 |
| Aarhus | 1%— | 2%41.84 | 22%4.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Silkeborg wins4Aarhus wins- D Aarhus vs Silkeborg 2-2
- L Silkeborg vs Aarhus 0-2
- L Aarhus vs Silkeborg 3-1
- D Silkeborg vs Aarhus 1-1
- D Aarhus vs Silkeborg 1-1
- W Aarhus vs Silkeborg 0-1
- D Silkeborg vs Aarhus 2-2
- L Silkeborg vs Aarhus 0-1
- D Aarhus vs Silkeborg 2-2
- D Aarhus vs Silkeborg 1-1
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Silkeborg's side.