Slavia Prague
38%
Fair odds 2.66Bookmakers 33%
Villarreal
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.56Bookmakers 42%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Slavia Prague | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Best price on offer | 3.06 | 4.00 | 2.35 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Villarreal
Villarreal are rated 79 points above Slavia Prague (1524 to 1445), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Slavia Prague
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Slavia Prague's chance of winning and takes the same from Villarreal's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.8. Slavia Prague score 1.1 a match against an average side; Villarreal concede 1.4 (17th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Slavia Prague LDLLL, lost 17 rating points; Villarreal LLWLD, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Villarreal
Bookmakers rate Villarreal higher than the model does: Slavia Prague 33% against the model's 38%, Villarreal 42% against 39%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Slavia PragueVillarrealSlavia Prague
7/10 over 2.5
8 scored
23 conceded
10/22
11/04
11/25
12/09
01/21
01/28
09/10
10/13
10/20
11/04
Villarreal
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 62%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Slavia Prague | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prague | 23%4.44 | 6%16.86 | 4%26.04 |
| Level | 13%7.78 | 12%8.34 | 15%6.59 |
| Villarreal | 3%38.46 | 5%21.74 | 20%4.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.