Slovan Bratislava
14%
Fair odds 6.99Bookmakers 11%
Betis
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.47Bookmakers 73%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Slovan Bratislava | Draw | Betis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 14% | 18% | 68% |
| Elo model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| Best price on offer | 10.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Betis
Betis are rated 187 points above Slovan Bratislava (1583 to 1396), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Slovan Bratislava
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Slovan Bratislava's chance of winning and takes the same from Betis's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Betis
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.6. Slovan Bratislava score 0.8 a match against an average side; Betis concede 1.2 (5th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Slovan Bratislava LLLLW, lost 5 rating points; Betis LWDWL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Betis
Bookmakers rate Betis higher than the model does: Slovan Bratislava 11% against the model's 14%, Betis 73% against 68%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Slovan BratislavaBetisSlovan Bratislava
7/10 over 2.5
6 scored
26 conceded
10/02
10/23
11/06
11/27
12/18
09/09
10/14
10/20
11/03
Betis
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 70%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-3
- 1-1
- 0-3
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Slovan Bratislava | Draw | Betis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovan Bratislava | 12%8.39 | 9%11.68 | 14%7.30 |
| Level | 2%40.65 | 7%13.77 | 30%3.33 |
| Betis | 0%— | 1%96.15 | 25%4.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.