Sociedad
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84
Sevilla
22%
Fair odds 4.46
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 2–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sociedad | Draw | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sociedad
Sociedad are rated 49 points above Sevilla (1517 to 1468), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sociedad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sociedad's chance of winning and takes the same from Sevilla's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sociedad
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. Sociedad score 1.5 a match against an average side (4th in La Liga); Sevilla concede 1.2 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sociedad
Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points; Sevilla LWLDL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sociedad
Sociedad won 5, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SociedadSevillaSociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Sevilla
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sociedad | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sociedad | 31%3.20 | 4%24.21 | 1%72.99 |
| Level | 20%5.09 | 13%7.74 | 8%12.18 |
| Sevilla | 4%25.71 | 5%18.62 | 13%7.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Sociedad wins3Sevilla wins- L Sevilla vs Sociedad 1-0
- W Sociedad vs Sevilla 2-1
- L Sociedad vs Sevilla 0-1
- W Sevilla vs Sociedad 0-2
- L Sevilla vs Sociedad 3-2
- W Sociedad vs Sevilla 2-1
- W Sociedad vs Sevilla 2-1
- W Sevilla vs Sociedad 1-2
- D Sevilla vs Sociedad 0-0
- D Sociedad vs Sevilla 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sociedad's side.