Sp Lisbon
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.74Bookmakers 37%
Man United
21%
Fair odds 4.71Bookmakers 36%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Sp Lisbon: 57% here, 37% with bookmakers; Man United: 21% here, 36% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sp Lisbon | Draw | Man United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 21% | 21% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 37% | 26% | 36% |
| Best price on offer | 2.65 | 3.75 | 2.72 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon are rated 117 points above Man United (1696 to 1579), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sp Lisbon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sp Lisbon's chance of winning and takes the same from Man United's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Lisbon
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.3. Sp Lisbon score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Primeira Liga); Man United concede 1.1 (14th best defence in Premier League).
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Last 5 matches Favours Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon WWLLW, lost 9 rating points; Man United WLLLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Man United
Bookmakers rate Man United higher than the model does: Sp Lisbon 37% against the model's 57%, Man United 36% against 21%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sp LisbonMan UnitedSp Lisbon
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Man United
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sp Lisbon | Draw | Man United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon | 37%2.73 | 5%18.55 | 2%41.84 |
| Level | 18%5.51 | 11%8.87 | 9%10.64 |
| Man United | 3%32.26 | 4%26.11 | 10%10.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.