Sparta Prague
30%
Fair odds 3.36Bookmakers 33%
AZ Alkmaar
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.23Bookmakers 40%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sparta Prague | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 2.87 | 3.61 | 2.46 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar are rated 79 points above Sparta Prague (1545 to 1466), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sparta Prague
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sparta Prague's chance of winning and takes the same from AZ Alkmaar's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AZ Alkmaar
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Sparta Prague score 1.2 a match against an average side; AZ Alkmaar concede 1.1 (3rd best defence in Eredivisie).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sparta Prague LLDWL, lost 16 rating points; AZ Alkmaar LLLWD, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sparta Prague
Bookmakers rate Sparta Prague higher than the model does: Sparta Prague 33% against the model's 30%, AZ Alkmaar 40% against 45%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sparta PragueAZ AlkmaarSparta Prague
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
12/11
12/18
03/12
03/19
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
AZ Alkmaar
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sparta Prague | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague | 19%5.29 | 6%17.51 | 3%33.22 |
| Level | 10%10.31 | 14%7.07 | 15%6.48 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2%62.89 | 5%21.93 | 27%3.71 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sparta Prague wins2AZ Alkmaar wins- L Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar 0-4
- L AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sparta Prague's side.