St. Gilloise
Model pick
71%
Fair odds 1.41
Gent
10%
Fair odds 9.64
The prediction
- 2–013%
- 1–011%
- 3–010%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St. Gilloise | Draw | Gent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise are rated 139 points above Gent (1689 to 1550), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St. Gilloise
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to St. Gilloise's chance of winning and takes the same from Gent's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St. Gilloise
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.7. St. Gilloise score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Belgian Pro League); Gent concede 1.2 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise WWWWD, gained 9 rating points; Gent DLWLW, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise won 6, drew 8 and lost 0 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St. GilloiseGentSt. Gilloise
7/10 over 2.5
28 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Gent
3/10 over 2.5
14 scored
6 conceded
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St. Gilloise | Draw | Gent |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise | 44%2.30 | 2%43.10 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.24 | 11%8.93 | 3%29.67 |
| Gent | 4%24.39 | 5%22.17 | 7%14.39 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6St. Gilloise wins0Gent wins- D Gent vs St. Gilloise 0-0
- D St. Gilloise vs Gent 0-0
- D St. Gilloise vs Gent 1-1
- W Gent vs St. Gilloise 2-3
- W St. Gilloise vs Gent 3-1
- W Gent vs St. Gilloise 0-3
- W Gent vs St. Gilloise 1-3
- D St. Gilloise vs Gent 0-0
- D St. Gilloise vs Gent 1-1
- D Gent vs St. Gilloise 1-1
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from St. Gilloise's side.