St Mirren
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.15
Kilmarnock
28%
Fair odds 3.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St Mirren | Draw | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
St Mirren and Kilmarnock are rated almost level (1405 and 1410).
-
Home advantage Favours St Mirren
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to St Mirren's chance of winning and takes the same from Kilmarnock's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St Mirren
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. St Mirren score 0.9 a match against an average side (12th in Scottish Premiership); Kilmarnock concede 1.8 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
St Mirren LDWLL, lost 12 rating points; Kilmarnock DLLWL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Kilmarnock
St Mirren won 2, drew 5 and lost 8 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St MirrenKilmarnockSt Mirren
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/09
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Kilmarnock
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St Mirren | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren | 30%3.36 | 6%18.02 | 2%47.85 |
| Level | 15%6.65 | 15%6.68 | 11%8.91 |
| Kilmarnock | 2%46.08 | 4%22.78 | 15%6.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2St Mirren wins8Kilmarnock wins- W Kilmarnock vs St Mirren 0-1
- L St Mirren vs Kilmarnock 0-3
- L Kilmarnock vs St Mirren 4-3
- D St Mirren vs Kilmarnock 0-0
- L Kilmarnock vs St Mirren 2-0
- W St Mirren vs Kilmarnock 5-1
- L Kilmarnock vs St Mirren 2-0
- D St Mirren vs Kilmarnock 2-2
- L St Mirren vs Kilmarnock 0-1
- L Kilmarnock vs St Mirren 5-2
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from St Mirren's side.