St Truiden
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49
Genk
34%
Fair odds 2.92
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St Truiden | Draw | Genk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Genk
Genk are rated 37 points above St Truiden (1549 to 1512), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St Truiden
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to St Truiden's chance of winning and takes the same from Genk's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. St Truiden score 1.3 a match against an average side (7th in Belgian Pro League); Genk concede 1.2 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
St Truiden DLLWW, barely moved; Genk LWWLD, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Genk
St Truiden won 1, drew 5 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St TruidenGenkSt Truiden
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Genk
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St Truiden | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Truiden | 23%4.43 | 5%21.88 | 2%53.19 |
| Level | 15%6.64 | 14%7.04 | 11%8.70 |
| Genk | 3%32.79 | 6%17.09 | 21%4.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1St Truiden wins4Genk wins- L Genk vs St Truiden 1-0
- L St Truiden vs Genk 1-2
- D St Truiden vs Genk 2-2
- L Genk vs St Truiden 3-2
- D St Truiden vs Genk 1-1
- D Genk vs St Truiden 3-3
- D St Truiden vs Genk 2-2
- D Genk vs St Truiden 0-0
- W Genk vs St Truiden 0-1
- L St Truiden vs Genk 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from St Truiden's side.