Standard
17%
Fair odds 5.85
Club Brugge
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.60
The prediction
- 1–210%
- 1–19%
- 0–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Standard | Draw | Club Brugge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Elo model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Club Brugge
Club Brugge are rated 214 points above Standard (1707 to 1493), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Standard
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Standard's chance of winning and takes the same from Club Brugge's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Club Brugge
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.2. Standard score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Belgian Pro League); Club Brugge concede 1.0 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Club Brugge
Standard DLLLL, lost 32 rating points; Club Brugge WWWWW, gained 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Standard won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StandardClub BruggeStandard
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/25
10/31
Club Brugge
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Standard | Draw | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 10%10.20 | 5%20.75 | 4%22.78 |
| Level | 6%15.41 | 11%8.98 | 22%4.62 |
| Club Brugge | 1%85.47 | 4%26.74 | 37%2.72 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Standard wins4Club Brugge wins- L Club Brugge vs Standard 3-0
- L Standard vs Club Brugge 1-2
- W Club Brugge vs Standard 1-2
- W Standard vs Club Brugge 1-0
- L Club Brugge vs Standard 2-0
- W Standard vs Club Brugge 2-1
- L Club Brugge vs Standard 2-0
- W Standard vs Club Brugge 3-0
- D Standard vs Club Brugge 2-2
- D Club Brugge vs Standard 2-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Standard's side.