Start
32%
Fair odds 3.09
Sarpsborg 08
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Start | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sarpsborg 08
Sarpsborg 08 are rated 59 points above Start (1338 to 1280), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Start
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Start's chance of winning and takes the same from Sarpsborg 08's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sarpsborg 08
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Start score 0.7 a match against an average side (17th in Eliteserien); Sarpsborg 08 concede 2.1 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Start LWLLL, lost 30 rating points; Sarpsborg 08 LWLWL, lost 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
StartSarpsborg 08Start
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
21 conceded
08/01
08/08
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Sarpsborg 08
8/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Start | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 23%4.35 | 8%13.19 | 5%20.28 |
| Level | 9%11.55 | 13%7.79 | 18%5.67 |
| Sarpsborg 08 | 1%86.21 | 3%30.40 | 21%4.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Start wins0Sarpsborg 08 wins- D Sarpsborg 08 vs Start 1-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Start's side.