Stevenage
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.76
Blackpool
18%
Fair odds 5.48
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stevenage | Draw | Blackpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stevenage
Stevenage are rated 49 points above Blackpool (1365 to 1316), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stevenage
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Stevenage's chance of winning and takes the same from Blackpool's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stevenage
Expected goals 1.7 to 0.9. Stevenage score 0.8 a match against an average side (18th in League One); Blackpool concede 2.0 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Stevenage
Stevenage DLWLW, barely moved; Blackpool DLWLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Stevenage won 3, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StevenageBlackpoolStevenage
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Blackpool
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stevenage | Draw | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 33%3.07 | 4%26.88 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.63 | 16%6.41 | 7%13.53 |
| Blackpool | 3%32.68 | 5%21.14 | 10%9.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Stevenage wins2Blackpool wins- W Stevenage vs Blackpool 1-0
- W Blackpool vs Stevenage 2-3
- L Stevenage vs Blackpool 1-3
- D Blackpool vs Stevenage 0-0
- W Stevenage vs Blackpool 1-0
- L Blackpool vs Stevenage 3-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stevenage's side.