Stockport
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.82
Leyton Orient
21%
Fair odds 4.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stockport | Draw | Leyton Orient | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stockport
Stockport are rated 90 points above Leyton Orient (1422 to 1332), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stockport
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Stockport's chance of winning and takes the same from Leyton Orient's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stockport
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Stockport score 1.0 a match against an average side (5th in League One); Leyton Orient concede 1.7 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Stockport WLDWW, gained 6 rating points; Leyton Orient WLLWD, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Stockport won 2, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StockportLeyton OrientStockport
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Leyton Orient
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
9 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stockport | Draw | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport | 33%3.01 | 4%23.70 | 1%80.65 |
| Level | 19%5.24 | 14%7.19 | 8%12.66 |
| Leyton Orient | 3%30.86 | 5%20.08 | 12%8.14 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Stockport wins2Leyton Orient wins- D Stockport vs Leyton Orient 0-0
- D Leyton Orient vs Stockport 2-2
- W Leyton Orient vs Stockport 0-1
- L Stockport vs Leyton Orient 1-4
- W Leyton Orient vs Stockport 0-3
- L Stockport vs Leyton Orient 1-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stockport's side.