Sturm Graz
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.53
Tirol
14%
Fair odds 7.03
The prediction
- 2–011%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sturm Graz | Draw | Tirol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz are rated 128 points above Tirol (1431 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sturm Graz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sturm Graz's chance of winning and takes the same from Tirol's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sturm Graz
Expected goals 2.1 to 0.9. Sturm Graz score 1.0 a match against an average side (4th in Austrian Bundesliga); Tirol concede 2.2 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sturm Graz LDDWW, barely moved; Tirol LDWLL, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz won 7, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sturm GrazTirolSturm Graz
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Tirol
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/28
09/02
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sturm Graz | Draw | Tirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 34%2.97 | 2%61.35 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%3.96 | 11%9.14 | 3%34.25 |
| Tirol | 7%14.68 | 7%14.03 | 11%8.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Sturm Graz wins2Tirol wins- D Tirol vs Sturm Graz 1-1
- L Tirol vs Sturm Graz 1-0
- L Sturm Graz vs Tirol 1-3
- W Tirol vs Sturm Graz 0-3
- W Sturm Graz vs Tirol 4-2
- W Tirol vs Sturm Graz 0-2
- W Sturm Graz vs Tirol 1-0
- W Tirol vs Sturm Graz 0-2
- W Sturm Graz vs Tirol 2-1
- D Tirol vs Sturm Graz 2-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sturm Graz's side.