Stuttgart
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67
Ein Frankfurt
20%
Fair odds 5.00
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stuttgart | Draw | Ein Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stuttgart
Stuttgart are rated 93 points above Ein Frankfurt (1581 to 1489), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stuttgart
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Stuttgart's chance of winning and takes the same from Ein Frankfurt's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stuttgart
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.3. Stuttgart score 1.6 a match against an average side (3rd in Bundesliga); Ein Frankfurt concede 1.5 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Stuttgart LWLDL, lost 13 rating points; Ein Frankfurt WLWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Stuttgart won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StuttgartEin FrankfurtStuttgart
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/23
10/31
11/03
Ein Frankfurt
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
23 conceded
05/08
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stuttgart | Draw | Ein Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 37%2.71 | 4%24.04 | 2%65.79 |
| Level | 19%5.31 | 10%9.86 | 7%14.47 |
| Ein Frankfurt | 5%22.17 | 5%19.69 | 12%8.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Stuttgart wins4Ein Frankfurt wins- D Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart 2-2
- W Stuttgart vs Ein Frankfurt 3-2
- L Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart 1-0
- L Stuttgart vs Ein Frankfurt 2-3
- W Stuttgart vs Ein Frankfurt 3-0
- W Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart 1-2
- D Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart 1-1
- L Stuttgart vs Ein Frankfurt 1-3
- L Stuttgart vs Ein Frankfurt 2-3
- D Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stuttgart's side.