Sudtirol
30%
Fair odds 3.33
Mantova
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sudtirol | Draw | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mantova
Mantova are rated 38 points above Sudtirol (1366 to 1327), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sudtirol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sudtirol's chance of winning and takes the same from Mantova's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Mantova
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Sudtirol score 0.8 a match against an average side (22nd in Serie B); Mantova concede 1.5 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Mantova
Sudtirol DLDLD, lost 28 rating points; Mantova DLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Mantova
Sudtirol won 0, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SudtirolMantovaSudtirol
2/10 over 2.5
11 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Mantova
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
11 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sudtirol | Draw | Mantova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol | 18%5.61 | 5%18.28 | 3%35.71 |
| Level | 11%9.03 | 16%6.32 | 17%6.00 |
| Mantova | 2%62.50 | 4%22.22 | 24%4.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sudtirol wins2Mantova wins- L Sudtirol vs Mantova 0-3
- D Mantova vs Sudtirol 1-1
- L Mantova vs Sudtirol 2-0
- D Sudtirol vs Mantova 2-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sudtirol's side.