Sunderland
30%
Fair odds 3.28
Tottenham
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sunderland | Draw | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Tottenham
Tottenham are rated 56 points above Sunderland (1555 to 1499), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sunderland
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sunderland's chance of winning and takes the same from Tottenham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tottenham
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.4. Sunderland score 1.2 a match against an average side (20th in Premier League); Tottenham concede 1.0 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tottenham
Sunderland LLDDL, lost 29 rating points; Tottenham WWWDL, gained 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
SunderlandTottenhamSunderland
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Tottenham
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
10 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sunderland | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 20%4.91 | 6%15.38 | 3%30.86 |
| Level | 10%10.43 | 17%6.03 | 17%5.74 |
| Tottenham | 1%95.24 | 4%27.86 | 22%4.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sunderland wins0Tottenham wins- W Sunderland vs Tottenham 1-0
- D Tottenham vs Sunderland 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sunderland's side.