Swansea
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.85
Cardiff
23%
Fair odds 4.42
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 2–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Swansea | Draw | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Swansea
Swansea are rated 63 points above Cardiff (1498 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Swansea
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Swansea's chance of winning and takes the same from Cardiff's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Swansea
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. Swansea score 1.2 a match against an average side (7th in Championship); Cardiff concede 1.5 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cardiff
Swansea LWLLW, lost 15 rating points; Cardiff DLWDW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Swansea
Swansea won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SwanseaCardiffSwansea
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Cardiff
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Swansea | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 32%3.11 | 4%23.81 | 1%74.07 |
| Level | 19%5.37 | 13%7.78 | 8%12.58 |
| Cardiff | 4%26.95 | 5%18.55 | 14%7.28 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Swansea wins2Cardiff wins- L Cardiff vs Swansea 3-0
- D Swansea vs Cardiff 1-1
- W Swansea vs Cardiff 2-0
- L Cardiff vs Swansea 2-0
- W Cardiff vs Swansea 2-3
- W Swansea vs Cardiff 2-0
- W Cardiff vs Swansea 0-4
- W Swansea vs Cardiff 3-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Swansea's side.