Swindon
28%
Fair odds 3.52
Chesterfield
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.17
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Swindon | Draw | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Chesterfield
Chesterfield are rated 20 points above Swindon (1242 to 1222), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Swindon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Swindon's chance of winning and takes the same from Chesterfield's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Chesterfield
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Swindon score 0.6 a match against an average side (20th in League Two); Chesterfield concede 1.9 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Swindon
Swindon WDWDL, gained 15 rating points; Chesterfield LWDLD, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Swindon won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SwindonChesterfieldSwindon
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Chesterfield
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Swindon | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 18%5.51 | 6%16.21 | 4%27.25 |
| Level | 9%10.67 | 14%6.97 | 18%5.61 |
| Chesterfield | 1%74.63 | 4%25.06 | 25%3.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Swindon wins1Chesterfield wins- L Swindon vs Chesterfield 1-2
- W Chesterfield vs Swindon 1-2
- W Swindon vs Chesterfield 1-0
- D Chesterfield vs Swindon 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Swindon's side.