Telstar
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.91
Zwolle
25%
Fair odds 4.04
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Telstar | Draw | Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Telstar
Telstar are rated 27 points above Zwolle (1458 to 1431), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Telstar
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Telstar's chance of winning and takes the same from Zwolle's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Telstar
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.3. Telstar score 1.2 a match against an average side (15th in Eredivisie); Zwolle concede 1.8 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Telstar WLLDL, lost 5 rating points; Zwolle WDWLL, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
TelstarZwolleTelstar
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
22 conceded
08/14
08/30
09/06
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
11/01
Zwolle
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Telstar | Draw | Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar | 32%3.13 | 5%21.83 | 2%58.82 |
| Level | 17%5.80 | 12%8.29 | 9%11.61 |
| Zwolle | 4%27.10 | 5%18.73 | 15%6.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Telstar wins2Zwolle wins- L Zwolle vs Telstar 4-1
- L Telstar vs Zwolle 0-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Telstar's side.