Torino
31%
Fair odds 3.24
Lazio
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.35
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Torino | Draw | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 45% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lazio
Lazio are rated 127 points above Torino (1606 to 1479), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Torino
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Torino's chance of winning and takes the same from Lazio's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lazio
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Torino score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in Serie A); Lazio concede 1.1 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lazio
Torino LLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Lazio WWWWW, gained 44 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Torino won 2, drew 5 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TorinoLazioTorino
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
16 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/19
10/23
10/27
11/01
Lazio
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
8 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Torino | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 19%5.39 | 6%17.73 | 3%33.78 |
| Level | 11%8.94 | 16%6.44 | 17%5.99 |
| Lazio | 2%61.73 | 4%22.68 | 23%4.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Torino wins3Lazio wins- W Torino vs Lazio 2-0
- D Lazio vs Torino 3-3
- D Lazio vs Torino 1-1
- L Torino vs Lazio 2-3
- L Torino vs Lazio 0-2
- L Lazio vs Torino 2-0
- W Lazio vs Torino 0-1
- D Torino vs Lazio 0-0
- D Lazio vs Torino 1-1
- D Torino vs Lazio 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Torino's side.