Torino
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00Bookmakers 52%
Lecce
24%
Fair odds 4.15Bookmakers 22%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Torino | Draw | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Best price on offer | 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
Team news
- Rolando Mandragora Out
- Ricardo Rodríguez Out
- Niccolò Fortini Doubtful
- Alessio Cacciamani Doubtful
- Franco Israel Out
Rafik Belghali has returned to training after a bruised knee and is expected to be available; Torino's preview lineups list Patterson and Cacciamani competing for the same flank spot.
- Ivan Ilić Out
- Santiago Pierotti Out
- Joël Monteiro Out
- Medon Berisha Out
- Willem Geubbels Doubtful
Lassana Coulibaly is reported as available for a possible start after a hamstring injury, and Kialonda Gaspar is back from suspension.
Allowing for this news: Torino 49%, draw 26%, Lecce 24% (xG 1.59 – 1.05). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sport.sky.it, dazn.com, calciomagazine.net, sisal.it
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Torino
Torino are rated 56 points above Lecce (1479 to 1422), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Torino
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Torino's chance of winning and takes the same from Lecce's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Torino
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Torino score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in Serie A); Lecce concede 1.4 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Torino
Torino LLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Lecce LLLWL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Torino
Bookmakers rate Torino higher than the model does: Torino 52% against the model's 50%, Lecce 22% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Torino
Torino won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TorinoLecceTorino
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
16 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/19
10/23
10/27
11/01
Lecce
7/10 over 2.5
11 scored
21 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 50%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Torino | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 30%3.38 | 4%22.37 | 1%72.46 |
| Level | 18%5.53 | 15%6.49 | 9%10.73 |
| Lecce | 3%35.46 | 5%20.00 | 14%7.20 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Torino wins2Lecce wins- W Torino vs Lecce 1-0
- L Lecce vs Torino 2-1
- L Lecce vs Torino 1-0
- D Torino vs Lecce 0-0
- W Torino vs Lecce 2-0
- W Lecce vs Torino 0-1
- W Lecce vs Torino 0-2
- W Torino vs Lecce 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Torino's side.