Toulouse
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.22
Rennes
30%
Fair odds 3.35
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Toulouse | Draw | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rennes
Rennes are rated 55 points above Toulouse (1556 to 1500), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Toulouse
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Toulouse's chance of winning and takes the same from Rennes's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Toulouse
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.3. Toulouse score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Ligue 1); Rennes concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Toulouse
Toulouse LDWDW, gained 10 rating points; Rennes DLWDL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Toulouse
Toulouse won 4, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ToulouseRennesToulouse
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/03
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/25
11/01
Rennes
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Toulouse | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 26%3.90 | 4%22.22 | 2%58.14 |
| Level | 17%6.04 | 14%7.20 | 10%9.70 |
| Rennes | 3%29.85 | 6%17.39 | 18%5.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Toulouse wins2Rennes wins- L Rennes vs Toulouse 1-0
- D Toulouse vs Rennes 2-2
- W Toulouse vs Rennes 2-1
- W Rennes vs Toulouse 0-2
- W Rennes vs Toulouse 1-2
- D Toulouse vs Rennes 0-0
- W Toulouse vs Rennes 3-1
- L Rennes vs Toulouse 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Toulouse's side.