Udinese
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.45
Fiorentina
34%
Fair odds 2.96
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Udinese | Draw | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fiorentina
Fiorentina are rated 46 points above Udinese (1491 to 1445), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Udinese
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Udinese's chance of winning and takes the same from Fiorentina's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Udinese
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Udinese score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Serie A); Fiorentina concede 1.4 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Fiorentina
Udinese LDLLL, lost 41 rating points; Fiorentina WDLLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Udinese won 4, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
UdineseFiorentinaUdinese
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
23 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/18
10/25
10/28
10/31
Fiorentina
9/10 over 2.5
15 scored
23 conceded
08/24
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Udinese | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 25%3.98 | 6%17.36 | 3%36.10 |
| Level | 14%7.22 | 14%7.11 | 13%7.45 |
| Fiorentina | 2%43.67 | 5%21.74 | 18%5.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Udinese wins5Fiorentina wins- W Udinese vs Fiorentina 3-0
- L Fiorentina vs Udinese 5-1
- L Udinese vs Fiorentina 2-3
- W Fiorentina vs Udinese 1-2
- D Fiorentina vs Udinese 2-2
- L Udinese vs Fiorentina 0-2
- L Fiorentina vs Udinese 2-0
- W Udinese vs Fiorentina 1-0
- W Fiorentina vs Udinese 0-4
- L Udinese vs Fiorentina 0-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Udinese's side.