Valencia
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.19
Osasuna
27%
Fair odds 3.69
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Valencia | Draw | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Valencia
Valencia are rated 31 points above Osasuna (1470 to 1439), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Valencia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Valencia's chance of winning and takes the same from Osasuna's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Valencia
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.1. Valencia score 1.0 a match against an average side (18th in La Liga); Osasuna concede 1.4 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Valencia WLDDL, lost 7 rating points; Osasuna LLWLD, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Valencia
Valencia won 5, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ValenciaOsasunaValencia
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
17 conceded
08/25
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/15
09/20
10/17
10/24
11/01
Osasuna
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
08/27
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/26
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Valencia | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 25%3.96 | 4%23.58 | 1%75.19 |
| Level | 18%5.54 | 17%6.01 | 10%9.72 |
| Osasuna | 3%35.59 | 5%18.59 | 16%6.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Valencia wins3Osasuna wins- W Valencia vs Osasuna 1-0
- L Osasuna vs Valencia 1-0
- D Osasuna vs Valencia 3-3
- D Valencia vs Osasuna 0-0
- W Osasuna vs Valencia 0-1
- L Valencia vs Osasuna 1-2
- W Valencia vs Osasuna 1-0
- W Osasuna vs Valencia 1-2
- L Valencia vs Osasuna 1-2
- W Osasuna vs Valencia 1-4
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Valencia's side.