Valladolid
24%
Fair odds 4.24
Sociedad
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 1–210%
- 0–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Valladolid | Draw | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 24% | 53% |
| Elo model | 19% | 26% | 55% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sociedad
Sociedad are rated 194 points above Valladolid (1517 to 1324), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Valladolid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Valladolid's chance of winning and takes the same from Sociedad's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sociedad
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.9. Valladolid score 1.0 a match against an average side (11th in La Liga 2); Sociedad concede 1.2 (6th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Valladolid WLLWD, gained 11 rating points; Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Valladolid won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ValladolidSociedadValladolid
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/12
10/18
10/23
11/02
Sociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-3
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Valladolid | Draw | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 15%6.51 | 6%15.62 | 5%20.92 |
| Level | 8%13.21 | 13%7.70 | 21%4.83 |
| Sociedad | 1%94.34 | 3%29.07 | 28%3.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Valladolid wins1Sociedad wins- L Sociedad vs Valladolid 2-1
- D Valladolid vs Sociedad 0-0
- W Sociedad vs Valladolid 0-1
- W Valladolid vs Sociedad 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Valladolid's side.