Vasteras SK
24%
Fair odds 4.12
Hammarby
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.03
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 0–111%
- 1–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vasteras SK | Draw | Hammarby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Elo model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hammarby
Hammarby are rated 141 points above Vasteras SK (1514 to 1373), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vasteras SK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Vasteras SK's chance of winning and takes the same from Hammarby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hammarby
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.6. Vasteras SK score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Allsvenskan); Hammarby concede 1.1 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vasteras SK WWLWL, gained 7 rating points; Hammarby WWWWL, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Vasteras SK won 1, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Vasteras SKHammarbyVasteras SK
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
6 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/23
10/28
11/01
Hammarby
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vasteras SK | Draw | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasteras SK | 21%4.77 | 9%10.95 | 5%18.38 |
| Level | 4%28.17 | 15%6.72 | 21%4.83 |
| Hammarby | 0%— | 2%64.52 | 24%4.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Vasteras SK wins2Hammarby wins- L Hammarby vs Vasteras SK 3-0
- W Vasteras SK vs Hammarby 1-0
- L Hammarby vs Vasteras SK 2-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vasteras SK's side.