Viking
Model pick
76%
Fair odds 1.32
Valerenga
11%
Fair odds 9.47
The prediction
- 3–18%
- 2–18%
- 3–07%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Viking | Draw | Valerenga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 76% | 14% | 11% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Viking
Viking are rated 202 points above Valerenga (1561 to 1359), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Viking
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Viking's chance of winning and takes the same from Valerenga's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Viking
Expected goals 3.1 to 1.2. Viking score 1.8 a match against an average side (1st in Eliteserien); Valerenga concede 1.9 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Valerenga
Viking WLWLW, barely moved; Valerenga WWWLD, gained 38 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Viking won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VikingValerengaViking
9/10 over 2.5
30 scored
17 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Valerenga
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
- 1-1
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Viking | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viking | 34%2.97 | 1%69.44 | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.29 | 6%16.75 | 3%35.97 |
| Valerenga | 12%8.31 | 6%17.36 | 8%13.21 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Viking wins3Valerenga wins- W Valerenga vs Viking 0-1
- W Viking vs Valerenga 5-1
- L Valerenga vs Viking 3-1
- D Viking vs Valerenga 1-1
- W Valerenga vs Viking 1-2
- L Viking vs Valerenga 1-2
- L Valerenga vs Viking 4-2
- D Valerenga vs Viking 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Viking's side.