Vitoria
23%
Fair odds 4.39
Estrela
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vitoria | Draw | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Estrela
Estrela are rated 100 points above Vitoria (1419 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vitoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vitoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Estrela's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Estrela
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.6. Vitoria score 0.7 a match against an average side (21st in Brasileirão); Estrela concede 1.4 (13th best defence in Primeira Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Vitoria
Vitoria LDDLW, barely moved; Estrela LLLLD, lost 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
VitoriaEstrelaVitoria
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/31
Estrela
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/05
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vitoria | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 19%5.16 | 10%10.04 | 8%13.11 |
| Level | 4%27.17 | 14%7.28 | 25%4.00 |
| Estrela | 0%— | 1%78.74 | 19%5.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.