Vitoria
27%
Fair odds 3.64
Santos
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.19
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vitoria | Draw | Santos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Elo model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Santos
Santos are rated 61 points above Vitoria (1380 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vitoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vitoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Santos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Santos
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.5. Vitoria score 0.7 a match against an average side (21st in Brasileirão); Santos concede 1.6 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vitoria LDDLW, barely moved; Santos LDDWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Vitoria won 1, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VitoriaSantosVitoria
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/31
Santos
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/03
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/28
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vitoria | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 22%4.46 | 8%11.81 | 5%21.46 |
| Level | 5%19.38 | 15%6.59 | 19%5.32 |
| Santos | 0%— | 2%45.87 | 23%4.39 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Vitoria wins2Santos wins- L Santos vs Vitoria 3-1
- W Santos vs Vitoria 0-1
- L Vitoria vs Santos 0-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vitoria's side.