Vitoria
14%
Fair odds 7.07
Sp Braga
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.58
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vitoria | Draw | Sp Braga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 14% | 23% | 63% |
| Elo model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sp Braga
Sp Braga are rated 245 points above Vitoria (1564 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vitoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Vitoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Sp Braga's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Braga
Expected goals 0.8 to 1.9. Vitoria score 0.7 a match against an average side (21st in Brasileirão); Sp Braga concede 1.1 (5th best defence in Primeira Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vitoria LDDLW, barely moved; Sp Braga DWLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
VitoriaSp BragaVitoria
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/31
Sp Braga
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-3
- 0-0
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vitoria | Draw | Sp Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 12%8.47 | 8%13.02 | 7%14.73 |
| Level | 3%38.61 | 13%7.82 | 28%3.62 |
| Sp Braga | 0%— | 1%80.00 | 29%3.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.