Volos NFC
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.66
Asteras Tripolis
34%
Fair odds 2.92
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Volos NFC | Draw | Asteras Tripolis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis are rated 45 points above Volos NFC (1296 to 1250), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Volos NFC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Volos NFC's chance of winning and takes the same from Asteras Tripolis's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Volos NFC score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in Greek Super League); Asteras Tripolis concede 1.9 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Asteras Tripolis
Volos NFC LLDLL, lost 14 rating points; Asteras Tripolis LDLWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Volos NFC won 5, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Volos NFCAsteras TripolisVolos NFC
5/10 over 2.5
7 scored
19 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/02
Asteras Tripolis
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
05/21
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Volos NFC | Draw | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volos NFC | 23%4.35 | 5%18.73 | 2%48.31 |
| Level | 13%7.50 | 17%5.85 | 13%7.44 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 2%56.18 | 5%21.69 | 19%5.17 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Volos NFC wins5Asteras Tripolis wins- L Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC 2-0
- W Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis 2-1
- W Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis 2-1
- W Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC 0-1
- W Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC 0-2
- L Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC 1-0
- L Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis 1-2
- D Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC 0-0
- D Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis 3-3
- L Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis 0-2
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Volos NFC's side.