Walsall
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
Northampton
31%
Fair odds 3.18
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Walsall | Draw | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Walsall
Walsall are rated 24 points above Northampton (1231 to 1207), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Walsall
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Walsall's chance of winning and takes the same from Northampton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Walsall
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Walsall score 0.7 a match against an average side (10th in League Two); Northampton concede 1.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Walsall WLWDD, gained 14 rating points; Northampton LDWLW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Walsall won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WalsallNorthamptonWalsall
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
Northampton
0/10 over 2.5
8 scored
8 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Walsall | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall | 22%4.53 | 4%23.42 | 1%68.49 |
| Level | 17%6.05 | 17%5.91 | 11%8.73 |
| Northampton | 3%37.45 | 6%17.79 | 19%5.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Walsall wins1Northampton wins- D Northampton vs Walsall 0-0
- W Walsall vs Northampton 1-0
- D Northampton vs Walsall 1-1
- L Walsall vs Northampton 0-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Walsall's side.