Watford
20%
Fair odds 5.12Bookmakers 18%
Middlesbrough
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.73Bookmakers 61%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Watford | Draw | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 20% | 23% | 58% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 50% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Best price on offer | 5.50 | 4.60 | 1.58 |
Team news
- Hector Kyprianou Out
- Kwadwo Baah Out
- Jeremy Ngakia Out
- Soumaïla Coulibaly Out
- Edoardo Bove Out
- Michail Antonio Out
- Nikoloz Chikovani Out
Watford report the Kyprianou ban; Martin Payero is a likely midfield recall and Dionisi says he has other options to replace Kyprianou. Kjerrumgaard and Mlačić were doubts for the Lincoln game, not reported for this one.
- Will Lankshear Doubtful
- David Strelec Doubtful
Reports say Lankshear is unlikely to be risked and Hellberg has hinted Strelec may not be ready to start; Lankshear also missed out on England U21 selection.
Allowing for this news: Watford 20%, draw 23%, Middlesbrough 58% (xG 1.07 – 1.97). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, staceywest.net, watfordfc.com, the72.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough are rated 157 points above Watford (1546 to 1389), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Watford
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Watford's chance of winning and takes the same from Middlesbrough's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Middlesbrough
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.0. Watford score 1.0 a match against an average side (20th in Championship); Middlesbrough concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Watford WLLWL, barely moved; Middlesbrough LWWDW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Middlesbrough
Bookmakers rate Middlesbrough higher than the model does: Watford 18% against the model's 20%, Middlesbrough 61% against 58%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Watford won 4, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WatfordMiddlesbroughWatford
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Middlesbrough
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 64%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Watford | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 12%8.36 | 5%19.01 | 4%25.71 |
| Level | 7%14.56 | 13%7.97 | 20%5.03 |
| Middlesbrough | 1%90.91 | 4%25.97 | 35%2.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Watford wins4Middlesbrough wins- L Middlesbrough vs Watford 5-1
- W Watford vs Middlesbrough 3-0
- W Middlesbrough vs Watford 0-1
- W Watford vs Middlesbrough 2-1
- L Middlesbrough vs Watford 3-1
- L Watford vs Middlesbrough 2-3
- L Middlesbrough vs Watford 2-0
- W Watford vs Middlesbrough 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Watford's side.