West Brom
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00
Bristol City
23%
Fair odds 4.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| West Brom | Draw | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours West Brom
West Brom are rated 42 points above Bristol City (1489 to 1448), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours West Brom
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to West Brom's chance of winning and takes the same from Bristol City's.
-
Attack against defence Favours West Brom
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.0. West Brom score 1.1 a match against an average side (12th in Championship); Bristol City concede 1.3 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours West Brom
West Brom DWDWW, gained 30 rating points; Bristol City LWDLL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours West Brom
West Brom won 5, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
West BromBristol CityWest Brom
3/10 over 2.5
13 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bristol City
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | West Brom | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 29%3.48 | 4%25.13 | 1%95.24 |
| Level | 19%5.31 | 16%6.09 | 9%11.71 |
| Bristol City | 3%34.72 | 5%18.83 | 14%7.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5West Brom wins3Bristol City wins- W Bristol City vs West Brom 0-1
- L West Brom vs Bristol City 1-2
- L Bristol City vs West Brom 2-1
- W West Brom vs Bristol City 2-0
- W West Brom vs Bristol City 2-0
- D Bristol City vs West Brom 0-0
- W Bristol City vs West Brom 0-2
- L West Brom vs Bristol City 0-2
- D Bristol City vs West Brom 2-2
- W West Brom vs Bristol City 3-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from West Brom's side.