West Ham
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.49
Stoke
13%
Fair odds 7.56
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| West Ham | Draw | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 67% | 19% | 13% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours West Ham
West Ham are rated 81 points above Stoke (1538 to 1457), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours West Ham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to West Ham's chance of winning and takes the same from Stoke's.
-
Attack against defence Favours West Ham
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. West Ham score 1.6 a match against an average side (1st in Championship); Stoke concede 1.3 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Stoke
West Ham DLLWW, barely moved; Stoke WWDWL, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
West HamStokeWest Ham
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/04
Stoke
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | West Ham | Draw | Stoke |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 35%2.82 | 2%44.84 | 0%— |
| Level | 26%3.81 | 11%9.39 | 4%24.94 |
| Stoke | 6%16.29 | 6%17.33 | 9%11.00 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.