Westerlo
37%
Fair odds 2.72Bookmakers 33%
Charleroi
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.60Bookmakers 41%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Westerlo | Draw | Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Best price on offer | 2.88 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
Team news
- Dylan Ourega Out
- Dogucan Haspolat Out
- Reda Laalaoui Out
Club site reports Cameron Congreve and Nikola Storm back from injury and available; a Belgian preview site reported no Westerlo absences, which conflicts with the WhoScored list.
- Cheick Keita Out
- Antoine Bernier Out
- Massamba Sow Out
- Mardochée Nzita Out
- Adama Bojang Out
- Jakob Romsaas Doubtful
Club-site report confirms Keita suspended and Sow and Bernier injured; Nzita, Bojang and Romsaas come from the WhoScored preview only, and Bojang's position is unverified.
Allowing for this news: Westerlo 39%, draw 25%, Charleroi 36% (xG 1.58 – 1.53). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: kvcwesterlo.be, whoscored.com, bet-experts.nl, statz.ai
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Charleroi
Charleroi are rated 45 points above Westerlo (1546 to 1502), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Westerlo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Westerlo's chance of winning and takes the same from Charleroi's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.6. Westerlo score 1.4 a match against an average side (6th in Belgian Pro League); Charleroi concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Westerlo LDWWW, gained 23 rating points; Charleroi WLWWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Charleroi
Bookmakers rate Charleroi higher than the model does: Westerlo 33% against the model's 37%, Charleroi 41% against 38%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Charleroi
Westerlo won 4, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WesterloCharleroiWesterlo
9/10 over 2.5
25 scored
25 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/24
10/31
Charleroi
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Westerlo | Draw | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo | 22%4.52 | 6%18.08 | 3%34.36 |
| Level | 13%7.90 | 13%7.54 | 14%7.20 |
| Charleroi | 2%40.98 | 5%19.96 | 22%4.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Westerlo wins7Charleroi wins- W Charleroi vs Westerlo 0-1
- W Westerlo vs Charleroi 2-0
- W Westerlo vs Charleroi 2-1
- L Charleroi vs Westerlo 2-0
- L Charleroi vs Westerlo 4-3
- D Westerlo vs Charleroi 2-2
- L Westerlo vs Charleroi 1-3
- L Charleroi vs Westerlo 1-0
- L Westerlo vs Charleroi 0-1
- L Charleroi vs Westerlo 3-2
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Westerlo's side.