Westerlo
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67
RAAL La Louviere
19%
Fair odds 5.19
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Westerlo | Draw | RAAL La Louviere | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Elo model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Westerlo
Westerlo are rated 76 points above RAAL La Louviere (1502 to 1426), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Westerlo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Westerlo's chance of winning and takes the same from RAAL La Louviere's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Westerlo
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.2. Westerlo score 1.4 a match against an average side (6th in Belgian Pro League); RAAL La Louviere concede 1.6 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Westerlo
Westerlo LDWWW, gained 23 rating points; RAAL La Louviere LWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
WesterloRAAL La LouviereWesterlo
9/10 over 2.5
25 scored
25 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/24
10/31
RAAL La Louviere
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Westerlo | Draw | RAAL La Louviere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo | 35%2.83 | 4%25.64 | 1%77.52 |
| Level | 20%4.91 | 11%8.98 | 7%14.49 |
| RAAL La Louviere | 4%22.37 | 5%19.31 | 11%8.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Westerlo wins0RAAL La Louviere wins- W Westerlo vs RAAL La Louviere 2-1
- D RAAL La Louviere vs Westerlo 0-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Westerlo's side.