Wigan
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Plymouth
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wigan | Draw | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Plymouth
Plymouth are rated 116 points above Wigan (1400 to 1283), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Wigan
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wigan's chance of winning and takes the same from Plymouth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Plymouth
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.4. Wigan score 0.7 a match against an average side (22nd in League One); Plymouth concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Wigan DWLLL, lost 8 rating points; Plymouth DWLLW, lost 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Wigan won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WiganPlymouthWigan
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Plymouth
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wigan | Draw | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan | 17%5.73 | 5%20.12 | 2%43.86 |
| Level | 12%8.56 | 16%6.10 | 15%6.51 |
| Plymouth | 2%56.50 | 5%20.24 | 25%3.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Wigan wins1Plymouth wins- L Wigan vs Plymouth 0-3
- D Plymouth vs Wigan 1-1
- D Wigan vs Plymouth 1-1
- W Plymouth vs Wigan 1-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wigan's side.