Wrexham
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.45
Portsmouth
32%
Fair odds 3.17
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wrexham | Draw | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Wrexham and Portsmouth are rated almost level (1475 and 1476).
-
Home advantage Favours Wrexham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wrexham's chance of winning and takes the same from Portsmouth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wrexham
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Wrexham score 1.1 a match against an average side (14th in Championship); Portsmouth concede 1.2 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Portsmouth
Wrexham WLLWL, barely moved; Portsmouth WDWDW, gained 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
WrexhamPortsmouthWrexham
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/04
Portsmouth
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wrexham | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 25%4.04 | 5%19.57 | 2%53.48 |
| Level | 15%6.88 | 16%6.06 | 12%8.24 |
| Portsmouth | 2%47.62 | 5%20.58 | 18%5.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Wrexham wins0Portsmouth wins- W Wrexham vs Portsmouth 2-1
- D Portsmouth vs Wrexham 0-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wrexham's side.