Wrexham
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.73Bookmakers 29%
Wolves
36%
Fair odds 2.77Bookmakers 43%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wrexham | Draw | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Best price on offer | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
Team news
- Sam Smith Out
- Josh Windass Out
- Nathan Broadhead Out
- Callum O'Hare Doubtful
- Liberato Cacace Doubtful
- Seb Revan Out
Phil Parkinson's squad is stretched after midweek 2-0 win over Middlesbrough; Sheaf, Hyam and Rathbone are options; Kieffer Moore expected to lead the line with Cadamarteri as cover; Thomason and Cleworth made first starts in a while and may have fitness questions.
- Jordan James Out
- Raúl Jiménez Out
- Boubacar Traoré Out
- Bertrand Traoré Out
- Ghislain Konan Out
Yerson Mosquera returned to training after illness and is expected to be available; Sean Neave could start after his brace off the bench at Bristol City; Adam Armstrong in line for a fourth straight start.
Allowing for this news: Wrexham 33%, draw 28%, Wolves 38% (xG 1.21 – 1.32). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com, lastwordonsports.com, expressandstar.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Wolves are rated 10 points above Wrexham (1485 to 1475), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Wrexham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wrexham's chance of winning and takes the same from Wolves's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Wrexham score 1.1 a match against an average side (14th in Championship); Wolves concede 1.2 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Wolves
Wrexham WLLWL, barely moved; Wolves WWWDW, gained 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Wolves
Bookmakers rate Wolves higher than the model does: Wrexham 29% against the model's 37%, Wolves 43% against 36%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
WrexhamWolvesWrexham
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/04
Wolves
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/16
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 50%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wrexham | Draw | Wolves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 22%4.56 | 5%19.05 | 2%45.25 |
| Level | 13%7.57 | 16%6.25 | 14%7.36 |
| Wolves | 2%49.75 | 5%20.41 | 21%4.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.