Wycombe
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.45
Bradford
31%
Fair odds 3.22
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wycombe | Draw | Bradford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Wycombe and Bradford are rated almost level (1356 and 1361).
-
Home advantage Favours Wycombe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wycombe's chance of winning and takes the same from Bradford's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Wycombe
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Wycombe score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in League One); Bradford concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Wycombe WDDWL, barely moved; Bradford LDDWD, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
WycombeBradfordWycombe
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bradford
2/10 over 2.5
7 scored
6 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wycombe | Draw | Bradford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe | 26%3.86 | 6%17.27 | 2%45.05 |
| Level | 14%7.27 | 17%5.81 | 13%7.47 |
| Bradford | 2%62.11 | 4%24.63 | 16%6.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Wycombe wins2Bradford wins- L Wycombe vs Bradford 1-2
- L Bradford vs Wycombe 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wycombe's side.