Yokohama F. Marinos
29%
Fair odds 3.48
FC Tokyo
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.21
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 0–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | FC Tokyo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo are rated 36 points above Yokohama F. Marinos (1437 to 1401), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Yokohama F. Marinos's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Tokyo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Tokyo
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.0 a match against an average side (7th in J1 League); FC Tokyo concede 1.2 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos WDDDD, barely moved; FC Tokyo WWDWW, gained 47 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos won 5, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Yokohama F. MarinosFC TokyoYokohama F. Marinos
3/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
11/01
FC Tokyo
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
1 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 22%4.46 | 8%12.14 | 5%20.53 |
| Level | 6%16.05 | 14%7.02 | 19%5.36 |
| FC Tokyo | 1%— | 3%39.22 | 22%4.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Yokohama F. Marinos wins2FC Tokyo wins- W FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2-3
- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo 0-3
- L Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo 1-3
- D FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos 1-1
- W Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo 2-1
- W FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2-3
- D FC Tokyo vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2-2
- W Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo 2-1
- W Yokohama F. Marinos vs FC Tokyo 8-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Yokohama F. Marinos's side.