York
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.57
Northampton
34%
Fair odds 2.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| York | Draw | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Team news
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension reports found for York City; the latest York injury update I found is about two months old, so this side's status is unverified.
- Sam Hoskins Doubtful
Sports Mole (one day old) says Hoskins's hamstring injury is unlikely to clear for this match; his usual starting status and injury length were not confirmed in the sources found.
Allowing for this news: York 39%, draw 27%, Northampton 33% (xG 1.37 – 1.25). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, ntfc.co.uk, uk.sports.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours York
York are rated 28 points above Northampton (1236 to 1207), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours York
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to York's chance of winning and takes the same from Northampton's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. York score 0.7 a match against an average side (9th in League Two); Northampton concede 1.9 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Northampton
York LLWDD, lost 15 rating points; Northampton LDWLW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours York
Northampton will have had 4 days' rest, York 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
YorkNorthamptonYork
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Northampton
0/10 over 2.5
8 scored
8 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | York | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| York | 21%4.86 | 4%24.57 | 1%69.44 |
| Level | 16%6.28 | 16%6.16 | 11%8.83 |
| Northampton | 3%34.60 | 6%16.47 | 21%4.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0York wins0Northampton wins- D York vs Northampton 1-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from York's side.