York
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32
Walsall
31%
Fair odds 3.22
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| York | Draw | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
York and Walsall are rated almost level (1236 and 1231).
-
Home advantage Favours York
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to York's chance of winning and takes the same from Walsall's.
-
Attack against defence Favours York
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. York score 0.7 a match against an average side (9th in League Two); Walsall concede 2.2 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Walsall
York LLWDD, lost 15 rating points; Walsall WLWDD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
YorkWalsallYork
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Walsall
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | York | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| York | 24%4.19 | 5%21.28 | 2%52.08 |
| Level | 17%6.00 | 15%6.75 | 12%8.47 |
| Walsall | 3%33.33 | 5%18.55 | 18%5.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.