Zwolle
21%
Fair odds 4.78
AZ Alkmaar
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.77
The prediction
- 1–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar are rated 113 points above Zwolle (1545 to 1431), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Zwolle
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Zwolle's chance of winning and takes the same from AZ Alkmaar's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AZ Alkmaar
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.0. Zwolle score 1.1 a match against an average side (18th in Eredivisie); AZ Alkmaar concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Zwolle
Zwolle WDWLL, gained 7 rating points; AZ Alkmaar LLLWD, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours AZ Alkmaar
Zwolle won 2, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ZwolleAZ AlkmaarZwolle
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
AZ Alkmaar
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zwolle | 13%7.82 | 5%18.87 | 4%25.91 |
| Level | 7%13.77 | 12%8.17 | 19%5.29 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1%79.37 | 4%24.51 | 34%2.91 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Zwolle wins4AZ Alkmaar wins- W Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar 3-1
- D AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 2-2
- L AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 2-0
- L Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar 1-2
- D AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 2-2
- L Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar 0-3
- W Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar 2-1
- L AZ Alkmaar vs Zwolle 3-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Zwolle's side.