Tennis (ATP)

19,413Matches rated

2Upcoming

64%Called right

11-01Data until

Rolex Paris Masters P1P2

Tested on 16,825 past matches. Lower log loss is better.

	Called right	Log loss	Brier
Elo model	64%	0.6261	0.4377
Bookmakers (same matches)	68%	0.5897	0.4059

Rolex Paris Masters 2026-11-07

Alcaraz C. Rated 2095

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Ruud C. Rated 1764

Alcaraz C. Model pick 87% Fair odds 1.15

Ruud C. 13% Fair odds 7.73

Add to slip: Alcaraz C. Ruud C.

Each side's win chance as territory

	Alcaraz C.	Ruud C.
Elo model	87%	13%

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out

Overall strength Favours Alcaraz C.

+74 pts

Alcaraz C. are rated 331 points above Ruud C. (2095 to 1764), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
Last 5 matches Neutral

Alcaraz C. WWWWW, gained 29 rating points; Ruud C. LWLWW, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Past meetings Favours Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C. won 6, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model