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Tennis (WTA) / Match analysis
FAGE WTA Finals Indian Wells 2026-11-10
Kostyuk M. Rated 1882
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--hrs
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Pegula J. Rated 1980
Kostyuk M. 36% Fair odds 2.76
Pegula J. Model pick 64% Fair odds 1.57
Add to slip: Kostyuk M. Pegula J.

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory
36% To win 64% To win

Who wins

Kostyuk M.Pegula J.
Elo model 36%64%

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out
  • Overall strength Favours Pegula J.

    Pegula J. are rated 98 points above Kostyuk M. (1980 to 1882), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.

  • Last 5 matches Favours Pegula J.

    Kostyuk M. LLLLW, lost 71 rating points; Pegula J. LLWWW, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.

  • Past meetings Neutral

    Kostyuk M. won 3, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.

    Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

Kostyuk M.Pegula J.
2025-11-021748–20112026-10-21

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