Football

67,846Matches rated

799Upcoming

49%Called right

11-06Data until

La Liga 2 1X2 Over 2.5Both score

11-07

Burgos Celta B 52% 1.93 26% 3.89 23% 4.43 49%xG 2.7 52%1.93 11-07

Burgos

Celta 35% 2.88 30% 3.36 36% 2.81 40%xG 2.3 47%2.12 11-07

Cadiz

Oviedo 28% 3.51 27% 3.72 45% 2.24 49%xG 2.6 54%1.87 11-07

Cordoba

Ceuta 60% 1.65 21% 4.78 19% 5.37 64%xG 3.3 61%1.65 11-07

Leganes

Albacete 41% 2.44 27% 3.75 32% 3.10 52%xG 2.7 56%1.79 11-08

Girona

Almeria 55% 1.83 23% 4.40 23% 4.43 62%xG 3.2 61%1.64 11-08

Las Palmas

Eldense 46% 2.16 26% 3.78 27% 3.66 50%xG 2.7 54%1.85 11-08

Sp Gijon

Valladolid 47% 2.12 26% 3.86 27% 3.71 52%xG 2.8 55%1.80 11-09

Sabadell Sociedad B 53% 1.90 25% 4.04 23% 4.40 53%xG 2.8 55%1.83 11-09

Sabadell

Sociedad 26% 3.91 25% 4.00 49% 2.02 55%xG 2.9 57%1.75 11-13

Leganes

Burgos 31% 3.19 29% 3.46 40% 2.52 43%xG 2.4 49%2.04 11-14

Valladolid

Castellon 30% 3.32 26% 3.89 44% 2.26 55%xG 2.9 58%1.72 11-14

Sociedad

Sp Gijon 67% 1.48 19% 5.21 13% 7.49 62%xG 3.2 54%1.84 11-14

Almeria

Andorra 48% 2.07 24% 4.24 28% 3.54 63%xG 3.2 64%1.56 11-14

Mallorca

Cordoba 54% 1.84 24% 4.22 22% 4.57 57%xG 3.0 57%1.76 11-14

Oviedo

Girona 40% 2.53 27% 3.75 34% 2.96 52%xG 2.8 56%1.78 11-15

Tenerife

Ceuta 49% 2.03 27% 3.70 24% 4.23 46%xG 2.5 49%2.03 11-15

Granada

Las Palmas 47% 2.11 26% 3.86 27% 3.73 52%xG 2.8 55%1.81 11-15

Eibar

Cadiz 55% 1.80 25% 4.05 20% 5.05 50%xG 2.7 51%1.96 11-15

Eldense

Sabadell 38% 2.65 28% 3.64 35% 2.88 49%xG 2.6 54%1.85 11-16

Albacete

Celta 28% 3.63 27% 3.75 46% 2.18 50%xG 2.7 54%1.86 11-20

Andorra

Leganes 61% 1.64 22% 4.54 17% 5.88 57%xG 3.0 54%1.85 11-21

Sabadell

Granada 48% 2.10 26% 3.84 26% 3.79 51%xG 2.7 55%1.83 11-21

Sociedad

Cadiz 77% 1.30 15% 6.57 8% 12.29 65%xG 3.4 49%2.03 11-21

Castellon

Eldense 66% 1.52 20% 4.97 14% 7.11 60%xG 3.1 53%1.87 11-21

Tenerife

Mallorca 29% 3.41 30% 3.33 41% 2.46 38%xG 2.2 45%2.21 11-22

Cordoba

Oviedo 41% 2.46 25% 3.99 34% 2.92 59%xG 3.1 62%1.62 11-22

Sp Gijon

Las Palmas 49% 2.02 26% 3.87 25% 4.05 51%xG 2.7 54%1.86 11-22

Girona

Eibar 56% 1.78 24% 4.17 20% 5.01 53%xG 2.8 53%1.87 11-22

Celta

Valladolid 56% 1.79 24% 4.09 20% 5.08 51%xG 2.7 52%1.94 11-22

Burgos

Albacete 53% 1.90 26% 3.86 21% 4.69 47%xG 2.6 50%2.01 11-23

Ceuta

Almeria 30% 3.29 24% 4.18 46% 2.19 63%xG 3.2 64%1.56

Premier League

90 matches played, 290 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Arsenal	9	+9	24	79	53%	98%	–
2	Man City	9	+10	21	76	32%	95%	–
3	Brighton	9	+17	19	71	12%	85%	–
4	Bournemouth	9	+1	12	63	1%	40%	–
5	Liverpool	9	+2	15	62	1%	36%	–
6	Aston Villa	9	-3	12	59	<1%	21%	<1%
7	Chelsea	9	+4	16	56	<1%	9%	<1%
8	Brentford	9	+7	14	53	–	5%	1%
9	Tottenham	9	+0	12	53	–	5%	2%
10	Everton	9	+0	13	51	–	2%	3%
11	Leeds	9	+1	11	50	–	2%	4%
12	Fulham	9	-2	9	47	–	<1%	8%
13	Man United	9	-5	7	46	–	<1%	12%
14	Nott'm Forest	9	-6	6	45	–	<1%	14%
15	Newcastle	9	-3	11	43	–	–	22%
16	Ipswich	9	-4	11	42	–	<1%	26%
17	Coventry	9	-7	9	40	–	–	42%
18	Crystal Palace	9	-12	7	39	–	–	49%
19	Hull	9	+1	11	38	–	–	52%
20	Sunderland	9	-10	5	36	–	–	65%

Each remaining match is played out with the goals model's expected goals, then the season is repeated 10,000 times. Rows are ordered by average finishing position. Team strengths stay as they are today, and points deductions aren't included.

Championship

168 matches played, 384 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Promoted	Play-offs	Relegated
1	Middlesbrough	14	+11	28	89	40%	63%	34%	–
2	Southampton	14	+15	28	86	21%	44%	48%	–
3	West Ham	14	+15	23	85	21%	44%	48%	–
4	Birmingham	14	+13	26	82	10%	26%	58%	–
5	Wolves	14	+8	27	78	4%	11%	53%	–
6	Swansea	14	+5	26	75	2%	6%	43%	–
7	West Brom	14	+5	25	74	<1%	4%	36%	–
8	Norwich	14	+3	18	69	<1%	<1%	20%	–
9	QPR	14	+5	21	68	<1%	<1%	14%	–
10	Portsmouth	14	+3	22	68	<1%	<1%	13%	–
11	Stoke	14	+5	26	67	<1%	<1%	11%	–
12	Millwall	14	-1	18	66	–	<1%	9%	<1%
13	Sheffield United	14	+3	22	65	–	<1%	8%	<1%
14	Wrexham	14	-2	17	61	–	–	2%	<1%
15	Bristol City	14	-3	18	60	–	–	2%	1%
16	Cardiff	14	-1	15	58	–	–	1%	2%
17	Blackburn	14	-2	18	57	–	–	<1%	3%
18	Bolton	14	-7	17	55	–	–	<1%	5%
19	Burnley	14	-8	10	50	–	–	–	15%
20	Lincoln	14	-10	15	49	–	–	–	19%
21	Watford	14	-10	14	48	–	–	–	24%
22	Charlton	14	-11	14	43	–	–	–	52%
23	Derby	14	-18	7	38	–	–	–	81%
24	Preston	14	-18	5	31	–	–	–	97%

La Liga

109 matches played, 270 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Barcelona	11	+34	30	96	89%	>99%	–
2	Real Madrid	11	+18	27	87	11%	>99%	–
3	Ath Madrid	11	+14	28	77	<1%	97%	–
4	Betis	11	+3	23	66	–	57%	–
5	Sociedad	11	+0	19	62	–	30%	–
6	Ath Bilbao	10	+4	15	54	–	7%	<1%
7	Sevilla	11	-2	17	54	–	5%	<1%
8	Vallecano	10	-5	12	50	–	2%	3%
9	Villarreal	11	+0	12	48	–	<1%	4%
10	Alaves	11	-2	12	47	–	<1%	5%
11	Elche	11	-4	10	47	–	<1%	6%
12	Levante	11	-5	10	46	–	<1%	7%
13	La Coruna	11	+1	14	46	–	<1%	8%
14	Celta	11	+0	12	43	–	–	13%
15	Espanol	11	-1	11	42	–	–	20%
16	Valencia	11	-9	9	40	–	–	28%
17	Osasuna	11	-11	11	40	–	–	30%
18	Getafe	11	-8	12	39	–	–	36%
19	Santander	11	-14	11	37	–	–	52%
20	Malaga	11	-13	5	30	–	–	86%

Bundesliga

72 matches played, 234 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Bayern Munich	8	+19	18	82	98%	>99%	–	–
2	Dortmund	8	+8	18	65	2%	87%	–	–
3	RB Leipzig	8	+11	15	58	<1%	55%	–	–
4	Freiburg	8	+8	16	57	<1%	50%	–	–
5	Leverkusen	8	+2	13	57	<1%	48%	–	–
6	Werder Bremen	8	+3	15	53	–	22%	<1%	–
7	Stuttgart	8	-1	9	52	–	22%	<1%	–
8	Hoffenheim	8	-2	9	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Augsburg	8	+3	9	44	–	3%	2%	2%
10	Ein Frankfurt	8	-5	11	45	–	3%	3%	2%
11	Mainz	8	+0	10	43	–	2%	3%	2%
12	Elversberg	8	+0	13	42	–	1%	4%	3%
13	FC Koln	8	-3	9	39	–	<1%	9%	9%
14	Hamburg	8	-12	9	36	–	–	14%	22%
15	Paderborn	8	-3	9	35	–	–	16%	26%
16	Union Berlin	8	-12	7	35	–	–	16%	27%
17	M'gladbach	8	-11	4	31	–	–	16%	53%
18	Schalke 04	8	-5	6	30	–	–	16%	54%

Serie A

100 matches played, 280 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 4	Relegated
1	Como	10	+10	23	88	71%	>99%	–
2	Inter	10	+13	25	82	21%	97%	–
3	Roma	10	+18	24	77	6%	87%	–
4	Lazio	10	+16	28	72	2%	63%	–
5	Juventus	10	+3	17	68	<1%	36%	–
6	Milan	10	+9	21	60	–	7%	–
7	Napoli	10	+4	14	59	–	5%	–
8	Frosinone	10	+10	20	58	–	4%	–
9	Bologna	10	+1	14	53	–	<1%	<1%
10	Cagliari	10	-6	13	47	–	–	4%
11	Torino	10	-2	13	47	–	–	4%
12	Genoa	10	-4	13	46	–	–	6%
13	Atalanta	10	-4	11	44	–	–	10%
14	Fiorentina	10	-8	8	44	–	–	11%
15	Parma	10	-7	8	39	–	–	29%
16	Lecce	10	-10	9	38	–	–	36%
17	Sassuolo	10	-10	8	37	–	–	41%
18	Monza	10	-7	7	37	–	–	42%
19	Udinese	10	-12	5	36	–	–	44%
20	Venezia	10	-14	3	32	–	–	73%

Ligue 1

81 matches played, 225 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 3	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Paris SG	9	+11	20	85	>99%	>99%	–	–
2	Paris FC	9	+6	17	58	–	48%	–	–
3	Monaco	9	+2	15	57	–	44%	–	–
4	Lyon	9	+8	17	56	–	36%	–	–
5	Lille	9	+6	18	54	–	22%	–	–
6	Rennes	9	+1	16	53	–	20%	<1%	–
7	Marseille	9	+7	15	52	–	15%	<1%	<1%
8	Brest	9	+4	12	48	–	7%	<1%	<1%
9	Strasbourg	9	-2	10	47	–	4%	1%	<1%
10	Toulouse	9	-1	10	46	–	3%	1%	<1%
11	Nice	9	+1	14	45	–	2%	2%	1%
12	Lorient	9	-1	12	42	–	<1%	4%	3%
13	Lens	9	+3	13	42	–	<1%	5%	3%
14	Auxerre	9	-10	10	38	–	–	12%	12%
15	Troyes	9	-9	8	33	–	–	19%	34%
16	Le Havre	9	-11	2	32	–	–	18%	39%
17	Le Mans	9	-7	7	32	–	–	19%	43%
18	Angers	9	-8	8	29	–	–	16%	62%

Eredivisie

99 matches played, 207 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Twente	11	+18	23	72	41%	67%	–	–
2	Ajax	11	+17	24	71	30%	58%	–	–
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	+22	23	68	17%	39%	–	–
4	Feyenoord	11	+21	25	66	10%	27%	–	–
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	+7	20	62	2%	8%	–	–
6	Heerenveen	11	+6	18	54	–	<1%	–	–
7	For Sittard	11	+0	19	50	–	–	<1%	–
8	Groningen	11	+2	15	49	–	–	<1%	<1%
9	Cambuur	11	+1	15	45	–	–	1%	<1%
10	Nijmegen	11	-2	11	44	–	–	1%	<1%
11	Go Ahead Eagles	11	-4	14	40	–	–	7%	4%
12	Utrecht	11	-12	12	39	–	–	8%	5%
13	Sparta Rotterdam	11	-6	12	37	–	–	11%	8%
14	Telstar	11	-7	9	36	–	–	14%	12%
15	Den Haag	11	-11	6	34	–	–	17%	18%
16	Zwolle	11	-11	11	34	–	–	19%	20%
17	Excelsior	11	-12	11	32	–	–	20%	32%
18	Willem II	11	-29	2	16	–	–	<1%	>99%

Primeira Liga

90 matches played, 216 to go. 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	P	GD	Pts	Exp. pts	Title	Top 2	Relegation play-off	Relegated
1	Porto	10	+21	30	79	49%	91%	–	–
2	Benfica	10	+19	25	79	47%	90%	–	–
3	Sp Lisbon	10	+12	21	68	4%	17%	–	–
4	Santa Clara	10	+9	21	59	–	<1%	–	–
5	Arouca	10	+6	20	56	–	<1%	–	–
6	Academico Viseu	10	+3	20	54	–	–	–	–
7	Sp Braga	10	+1	14	51	–	–	–	–
8	Gil Vicente	10	+1	15	49	–	–	<1%	–
9	Alverca	10	-1	11	47	–	–	<1%	<1%
10	Famalicao	10	+0	10	46	–	–	<1%	–
11	Moreirense	10	-4	14	42	–	–	2%	<1%
12	Estrela	10	-4	10	38	–	–	4%	3%
13	Maritimo	10	-12	8	34	–	–	13%	15%
14	Nacional	10	-9	7	33	–	–	16%	18%
15	Rio Ave	10	-14	7	32	–	–	18%	25%
16	Casa Pia	10	-14	7	31	–	–	18%	29%
17	Estoril	10	-14	2	30	–	–	18%	31%
18	Vitoria	10	+0	9	24	–	–	10%	79%

#	Team	League	Rating	Played
1	Mallorca	La Liga 2	1474	202
2	Girona	La Liga 2	1468	214
3	Castellon	La Liga 2	1466	96
4	Almeria	La Liga 2	1453	214
5	Eibar	La Liga 2	1423	222
6	Burgos	La Liga 2	1414	222
7	Oviedo	La Liga 2	1404	218
8	Las Palmas	La Liga 2	1397	214
9	Sp Gijon	La Liga 2	1384	222
10	Granada	La Liga 2	1384	220
11	Sabadell	La Liga 2	1363	12
12	Cordoba	La Liga 2	1347	96
13	Andorra	La Liga 2	1338	137
14	Celta B	La Liga 2	1334	12
15	Tenerife	La Liga 2	1330	179
16	Valladolid	La Liga 2	1324	214
17	Albacete	La Liga 2	1322	180
18	Leganes	La Liga 2	1313	218
19	Mirandes	La Liga 2	1312	210
20	Eldense	La Liga 2	1309	96
21	Sociedad B	La Liga 2	1300	96
22	Cadiz	La Liga 2	1297	210
23	Ceuta	La Liga 2	1286	54
24	Huesca	La Liga 2	1286	210
25	Zaragoza	La Liga 2	1268	210
26	Cultural Leonesa	La Liga 2	1261	42

Who wins

Tested on 59,594 past matches. Lower log loss is better.

	Called right	Log loss	Brier
Goals model	49%	1.0211	0.612
Elo model	49%	1.0233	0.6135
Bookmakers, early odds (same matches)	51%	0.9976	0.5961
Bookmakers, closing odds (same matches)	51%	0.999	0.5971

53%

When the model disagreed with the early odds by more than 3 points, the price moved its way by kick-off 53% of the time (48,985 cases; an average shift of 0.2 points). That's about what chance gives: the model doesn't spot things the market hasn't already priced in. Use it as an independent second opinion, and treat a "generous" price as a reason to look closer, not as an edge.

Goals markets

Log loss. Lower is better.

Market	Goals model	Naive guess	Bookmakers	Edge over naive
Over/under 2.5 goals	0.679	0.693	0.676	2.0%
Both teams score	0.686	0.691	—	0.6%
Half-time result	1.053	1.081	—	2.6%
First-half goal	0.601	0.605	—	0.7%
Half-time / full-time	1.907	1.962	—	2.8%

"Naive guess" always predicts how often each outcome has happened so far. Beating it means the model knows something about the teams.

La Liga 2 2026-11-08

Girona Rated 1468

--days

--hrs

--min

--sec

xG 1.98 – 1.21

Almeria Rated 1453

Girona Model pick 55% Fair odds 1.83Bookmakers 46%

Draw 23% Fair odds 4.40Bookmakers 27%

Almeria 23% Fair odds 4.43Bookmakers 28%

Add to slip: Girona Draw Almeria

The model and the bookmakers disagree. Girona: 55% here, 46% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.

Share of the pitch

Each side's win chance as territory

Who wins

	Girona	Draw	Almeria
Goals model	55%	23%	23%
Elo model	48%	27%	25%
Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed)	46%	27%	28%
Best price on offer	2.05	3.60	3.60

Why this prediction

What the model weighs, and what it leaves out

Overall strength Favours Girona

+4 pts

Girona are rated 16 points above Almeria (1468 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
Home advantage Favours Girona

+18 pts

Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Girona's chance of winning and takes the same from Almeria's.
Attack against defence Favours Girona

Expected goals 2.0 to 1.2. Girona score 1.2 a match against an average side (3rd in La Liga 2); Almeria concede 1.6 (14th best defence).
Last 5 matches Favours Almeria

Girona LWWDD, barely moved; Almeria DDWWW, gained 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Bookmakers' view Favours Almeria

Bookmakers rate Almeria higher than the model does: Girona 46% against the model's 55%, Almeria 28% against 23%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Past meetings Neutral

Girona won 3, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model

Rating, last 12 months

GironaAlmeria

2025-11-081404–14782026-10-31

Total goals

over / under

Over 0.595%1.05

Under 0.55%21.69

Over 1.583%1.20

Under 1.517%5.97

Over 2.562%1.62

Under 2.538%2.62

Over 3.540%2.53

Under 3.560%1.65

Over 4.522%4.59

Under 4.578%1.28

Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Both score: yes61%1.64

Both score: no39%2.56

Girona clean sheet30%3.36

Almeria clean sheet14%7.25

Most likely scores

correct score

1-1 10%9.66
2-1 10%10.25
2-0 8%12.41
1-0 8%13.07
3-1 6%15.50
1-2 6%16.75
2-2 6%16.92
3-0 5%18.80

Every score

Girona goals ↓ Almeria goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	4	3	1
1	8	10	6	2	1
2	8	10	6	2	1
3	5	6	4	2
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

Half-time result

xG 0.89 – 0.55

Girona ahead 41% Fair odds 2.44

Level 38% Fair odds 2.63

Almeria ahead 21% Fair odds 4.77

First-half goals

Over 0.576%1.32

Under 0.524%4.12

Over 1.543%2.34

Under 1.557%1.75

Over 2.518%5.68

Under 2.582%1.21

Half-time / full-time

Half-time ↓ Full-time →	Girona	Draw	Almeria
Girona	35%2.89	5%20.96	2%59.17
Level	17%5.77	12%8.16	8%11.93
Almeria	3%30.40	5%20.75	13%7.77

Football

Premier League

Championship

La Liga

Bundesliga

Serie A

Ligue 1

Eredivisie

Primeira Liga

Who wins

Goals markets

Compare any two teams

Share of the pitch

Why this prediction

Rating, last 12 months

Total goals

Both teams to score & clean sheets

Most likely scores

Every score

Half-time result

First-half goals

Half-time / full-time

Corners

Cards

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